Gaza vs. Governance: Israelis feel the burden of the Netanyahu ‘paradox’

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is under mounting pressure from constituents, politicians within his government, and world leaders, whose unease over the rising death toll and destruction from Israel’s ongoing war with Hamas in Gaza is growing by the day.

Netanyahu is facing immense domestic pressure to secure the release of Israeli hostages kidnapped during the October 7 Hamas attack that triggered the deadly Israeli military retaliation on the Palestinian territory.

Coinciding with the Jewish holiday of Purim, thousands gathered in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem to protest the government and call for securing a hostage deal.

The growing aversion to the current Israeli government follows months of disruptive protests in Israel, pre-war, backed by many military officials, intelligence community members, and legal figures, in addition to reservists, threatening to ignore the call of duty to stop the government from passing legislation that would lower the powers of the Supreme Court.
The Netanyahu ‘paradox’

The Israeli public supports the government and military in the country’s war against Gaza, but trust in the political establishment and its leader, Netanyahu, is among the lowest ever. “Israel today is a paradox,” columnist Shmuel Rosner told Al Arabiya English.

Speaking from Tel Aviv, Rosner described a “unique” situation in Israel wherein public opinion about the government is vastly polar, split into its war in the besieged Gaza Strip and Netanyahu’s leadership.

“When a country is attacked and goes to war, you see a phenomenon of rallying around the flag. People tend to begin supporting the government and the country’s leader. In our case, what happened is massive support for the war effort but very little support and trust in the prime minister and the government,” Rosner said.

Only 15 percent of Israelis want Netanyahu to remain as prime minister after the war against the Palestinian militant group Hamas ends, a poll with 746 participants released in January 2024 by the Israel Democracy Institute (IDI) revealed.

Several Israelis, however, still support Netanyahu because they see him as the only one capable of leading the war against Hamas and, more importantly, maneuvering the United States.

IDI president Yohanan Plesner wrote: “Despite the distrust in leadership, we see a promising increase in the sense of social solidarity, which is likely related to the widespread engagement and scope of civilian volunteerism since the start of the war.”
Hamas attack, a catalyst

As the Israeli leader battles charges of fraud and bribery, even before the October 7 Hamas attack, Netanyahu’s approval ratings were already plummeting, various surveys found, in part due to a judicial overhaul bill he proposed to undermine the powers of the Supreme Court.

The proposal plunged Israel into months of disruptive protests that saw tens of thousands of Israelis march across the country at an unprecedented scale, triggering notable opposition to Netanyahu’s leadership.

In January 2024, amid the war in Gaza, the bill was eventually struck down by Israel’s Supreme Court, which ruled that it would interfere with the foundations of its democracy.

But the damage had already been done.

The October 7 attack acted as a catalyst and further exacerbated the disapproval of Netanyahu and rising anger against his policies, with many Israelis blaming him for compromising the country’s security and failing to secure the release of hostages.

“Immediately after the October 7 attack, we started seeing a vast majority of Israelis saying that he [Netanyahu] has to go, in numbers that we had never seen before,” Executive Director of +972 magazine Haggai Matar told Al Arabiya English.

“Many Israelis see the war as not producing what it should have in five-and-a-half months. Most of the hostages are still there [in Gaza] and gradually dying, and victory does not seem to be in immediate sight, which contributes to the criticism,” he further explained.

Public dissatisfaction with Netanyahu’s leadership has quickly rolled into calls for an early election, not scheduled until 2026.

However, an election right now in Israel is unlikely, according to Matar, who explained that the current government is under no obligation to heed these calls and that it would also be against the interests of the coalition parties to promote a replacement for Netanyahu.

He said: “The coalition parties are looking at the polls and seeing they will lose a lot of seats in the next elections. So, even if some of them decide to go ahead with an election, this is a terrible time because almost all of them will suffer poorly.”

If an election were to take place somehow, Netanyahu’s current coalition government, which has 64 seats, would likely remain with 44 seats, dropping about 20 seats, creating a huge gap, according to Matar.

A coalition has always been required in Israel to form a government. To lead the country, at least 61 seats in the 120-member parliament, Knesset, must be filled by one or more allied parties.

Matar said that Netanyahu and his right-wing Likud party are aware of the public sentiment against him. Still, that sentiment largely remains a sentiment that does not translate into an actual threat to his hold on power.
Cracks in government, flickering US support

With the onset of the war in October 2023, the Israeli government formed an emergency war cabinet that included Netanyahu’s rival, Benny Gantz, and his National Unity party members Gadi Eizenkot, Gideon Sa’ar, Hili Tropper, and Yifat Shasha-Biton as observer.

Initially, the security cabinet’s aims were straightforward – destroy Hamas’ clutch over Gaza and secure Israel’s border.

However, as the war extends into its sixth month, killing over 31,000 Palestinians, and renewing global calls for a ceasefire, the so-called ‘war cabinet’ seems to be disintegrating.

Sa’ar announced an exit from Gantz’s party and asked to join the war cabinet. The veteran minister’s request was not granted, and he resigned from the unity government on Monday.

Gantz, who has had a bitter rivalry with Netanyahu for some years, stepped out of order earlier in March and visited the US, where he met Vice-President Kamala Harris, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, the Senate’s Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, and other key politicians.

The trip came at a time when the war cabinet’s cohesion was in question, threatening to end the unity government and possibly resulting in a wave of fresh protests and internal unrest over many issues, including calls for an early election.

It will add to the pressure that the Netanyahu government is already facing from global powers, including their favorite ally, the US, for a ceasefire. On Monday, after vetoing three earlier draft council resolutions to cease fighting in the Gaza Strip, the US abstained in the vote.

Israeli historian Arie Dubnov cautioned that support from the US as an ally is neither “eternal” nor “unconditional.”

“The US was not always Israel’s strong supporter,” he told Al Arabiya English, adding that Tel Aviv cannot do whatever it wants.

With it being an election year in the US, Dubnov said the war could have “dramatic” effects on decisions and drew parallels to former American President Lyndon Johnson and his downfall from the war in Vietnam.

The leader of the US Senate, Democrat Chuck Schumer, last week, during a speech, called on the Israeli government to hold fresh elections in one of the highest-level public rebukes of Netanyahu and his government – a position that US President Joe Biden backed.

“At this critical juncture, I believe a new election is the only way to allow for a healthy and open decision-making process about the future of Israel, at a time when so many Israelis have lost their confidence in the vision and direction of their government,” the senior US politician said.

Netanyahu hit back at Schumer, saying the speech was “totally inappropriate” but reflected a growing deviation in thinking between the two democracies. Schumer reiterated the importance of a two-state solution to the conflict, a solution offered by most Middle Eastern and global powers.

A US intelligence report concluded earlier this month that the Israeli leadership “may be in jeopardy.” The 2024 Annual Threat Assessment report expressed concerns about Israel’s vision for the end of the war.

It raised doubts about whether Netanyahu could stay in power with a halted hostage deal and mounting pressure from Israelis to secure their release.

“Distrust of Netanyahu’s ability to rule has deepened and broadened across the public from its already high levels before the war, and we expect large protests demanding his resignation and new elections,” the report said. “A different, more moderate government is a possibility,” it added.
‘Politician from a different league’

In his yearslong political career, Netanyahu has built his image as a “politician from a different league,” cementing himself as the only Israeli leader on the international stage capable of dealing with world powers like Russia and being able to maneuver the US, according to Israeli journalist Matar.

When Netanyahu was out of power for one year, Matar said the entire opposition government existed only to keep him out. The mixed-bunch parties could not promote any significant policies and remained focused only on keeping Netanyahu from regaining leadership. They were, in the end, unsuccessful.

“He [Netanyahu] led a very successful campaign that eventually brought them [opposition parties] down. So, if he were to lose now, it just means he is laying the foundations for his next campaign to try and tear down the next government,” Matar explained.

Even if ousted, Netanyahu will likely be a central figure in Israeli politics, he said, adding that unless he is convicted in his ongoing trial for fraud and bribery, which could take years.

With the ongoing war with Hamas, Netanyahu is painting himself as the only leader capable of destroying the militant group and stopping the international push for a two-state solution, experts believe.

The Israeli leader is trying to rally his right-wing supporters around this messaging and hoping “that he wins enough time to rebuild his base,” Matar said.
A ‘deeply polarized’ society

Israeli historian Dubnov reasoned during the interaction with Al Arabiya English that Netanyahu is the longest-serving Israeli leader, but a “deeply divided” society and “weak” coalitions can bring his government down.

Speaking from “the heart of Tel Aviv,” Dubnov said that the Israeli public feels “exploited” under Netanyahu’s rule.

“Every other house has a banner against Netanyahu, every other car has a sticker against Netanyahu, people are working wearing T-shirts against Netanyahu,” he said as he described the scene on the ground.

The massive movement-restricting protests from pre-war Israel have reduced since the outbreak of the conflict, which Dubnov said is because “people have bigger things to worry about.”

He said the Israeli public is part of a “deeply polarized” and “deeply divided” society that “did not disappear overnight after October 7.”

Even in times of heightened military action, like in the aftermath of the October 7 Hamas attacks, ultra-orthodox Jews continue to remain exempt from enlisting in Israel’s army – a rule only applicable to the small community of ultra-orthodox who make up about 13 percent of the Israeli population.

Netanyahu, who has formed a majority with ultra-orthodox parties to retain power, has advocated for this minority community to join the military service and end the decades-old exception.

In 2018, the government ended a law that would waive the need for the ultra-orthodox to enlist, but the order was stayed until March 2024 with no decision in sight.

The remaining Israeli public continues to pay their share of taxes that contribute to the subsidies received by these groups, in addition to enlisting in the military. This imbalance has resulted in a feeling that the minority groups are not “carrying the burden” equally, Dubnov explained.

Netanyahu has further exploited this situation, Dubnov said, where divisions between groups based on their identity deepen existing cracks in Israeli society.

Additionally, the war has added another layer of division, he explained, adding that some right-wing factions of society consider the hostages in Gaza “martyrs,” while more left-leaning and liberal groups call for a ceasefire to bring the captured Israelis to safety, among other tactical issues.

Israelis are also divided over Netanyahu’s relationship with the US, with some seeing him as risking Israel’s ties with its key ally, given reports of rifts with the administration of US President Joe Biden. Others think Netanyahu’s leadership is needed, now more than ever, to stand against the US and stop foreign players from pressuring Israel.
Arab-Israeli votes

According to Thabet Abu Rass, the co-executive director of the Abraham Initiatives in Israel, the Arab-Israeli community can be a “very important” force in changing the political dynamics and power equilibrium in Israel.

Arab-Israelis consist of just above 20 percent of the total electorate, but their voter turnout is less than 50 percent, the lowest in the country. However, with the ongoing war with Hamas and calls for a change in leadership, Abu Rass said the community could turn out to vote in large numbers if early elections were held in Israel, adding the scenario is “very likely.”

“The change is going to be there, and Arab politicians are already working in that area to bring forward the election to this year,” he said. “This time, because of the war and the fear that the Arab-Israeli community will turn out to vote in higher percentage.”

However, replacing Netanyahu will not bring any “real” political changes in Israel and its approach towards the war, Abu Rass said, adding that it will be the same situation with a different leader.

“Netanyahu’s opposition does not have a clear agenda either, and they are unwilling to discuss a two-state solution. It is going to be very tough for Israelis to agree on something right now,” he said.

“They [Israelis] agree that Netanyahu should be removed, but they don’t agree on how to achieve peace.”