California's protracted vote counting process, still ongoing following last week's primary elections, may undergo significant changes before the upcoming November midterms. This potential shift is contingent on a U.S. Supreme Court ruling regarding the deadline for receiving mail-in ballots.
Election experts indicate that the impact of any changes on the speed of vote tabulation will depend on the Supreme Court's decision, the response from state lawmakers and local election officials, and whether additional measures are implemented to expedite the counting process. These changes could also influence the prevalence of unsubstantiated claims of fraud, which have been amplified by former President Donald Trump and others in response to delayed results.
The U.S. Supreme Court heard arguments concerning a five-day grace period for mail ballots in Mississippi, with a conservative majority appearing skeptical. Many observers anticipate a ruling by the end of the month that mail ballots, particularly for federal races, must be received by Election Day to be counted. This outcome, in the case of Watson v. Republican National Committee, is considered probable, though not definitive. Some legal experts question the precedent for such a conclusion, with Rick Hasen, an election law expert at UCLA Law, stating that such an interpretation would be a "bogus interpretation of the statute."
Hasen and others also suggest that a ruling requiring ballots to be received by Election Day may not significantly accelerate California's vote counting. The primary bottleneck, they argue, lies with the substantial volume of ballots cast or dropped off on or before Election Day, which still require extensive processing. In 2024, over 406,000 late-arriving mail ballots were counted, representing a small fraction of the total.
Regardless of the Supreme Court's decision, state and local election officials are preparing for potential adjustments and exploring other avenues to speed up vote tabulation. As of Monday, more than 7.7 million ballots had been counted from the recent primary, with over 1.7 million remaining. If the Court mandates that ballots for federal elections must be received by Election Day, California would need to swiftly inform millions of voters of the new rules and establish revised mailing deadlines.
Additionally, state officials may need to determine whether to implement a bifurcated counting process with different rules for primaries and general elections, and for federal versus state and local races on the same ballots, as a narrow ruling might not apply uniformly. Assemblymember Gail Pellerin has been working on contingency plans and requested $35 million in state funding for voter education on any new midterm deadlines, though this funding has not yet been appropriated.
Experts like Kim Alexander of the California Voter Foundation advocate for increased state funding to enhance ballot processing capabilities, including new counting machines and modern facilities. She argues that accessible, secure, and verifiable elections can coexist with an accelerated vote count, citing the success of a 2020 campaign to educate voters on vote-by-mail protocols, which led to record turnout and a faster count.
