What would a Houthi takeover in Yemen mean?

To begin with it would mean that a nation of almost 30 million people with an extensive land border with Saudi Arabia would fall under the control of a group that is a proxy force for Iran, armed, trained and in many cases directed by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps. This takeover would add to the considerable threat already posed to Saudi Arabia by Iranian proxy forces in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. In many ways it would complete the encirclement of the kingdom.

Houthi forces have on many occasions already attacked Saudi Arabia proper with drones and missiles. Those attacks would certainly intensify after a Houthi takeover. They would also likely be accompanied by cross-border operations. Iran’s goal vis a vis Saudi Arabia is not coexistence. It is the settling of a 1,500-year-old war between Sunni and Shia Islam and the capture of the holy cities of Mecca and Medina.

Saudi Arabia cannot accept such an eventuality. We may fantasize momentarily that we can walk away from Yemen and not face the consequences. The Saudis cannot. If we do not sell them arms and stand with them, they will be forced of necessity to go elsewhere in search of arms. That likely means Moscow and another opportunity for Vladimir Putin to gain ground and influence at our expense. It may also, if the threat grows dire enough, mean a deal between Riyadh and Islamabad for the purchase of nuclear weapons and a guarantee against an Iranian existential threat.

A Houthi takeover of Yemen would not simply be a problem for Saudi Arabia, as profound as such a threat might be. Iran, increasingly allied with China, is already in a position to threaten to close the Straits of Hormuz to all international shipping. Houthi control of the eastern shores of the Bab el Mandab would mean Iranian control of the Suez Canal and the Red Sea, through which millions of barrels of oil transit every day. Fracking may have liberated the United States from dependence on Middle Eastern oil. Our allies around the world have no such luxury.

This is not an idle threat. The Houthis, with Iranian assistance, have demonstrated their ability to target ships at sea, including U.S. naval vessels with cruise missiles. They have also employed Iranian-built remote control “drone” boats in attacks on oil tankers. These vessels jammed with explosives provide yet another threat that can be deployed and can significantly complicate the task of protecting commercial shipping.