Analysts express grave concern that escalating airstrikes exchanged between the United States and Iran this week could undermine a fragile cease-fire and propel the monthslong conflict into a dangerous new phase, despite President Trump's recent assertions of an imminent peace deal.
The ongoing military actions risk derailing diplomatic efforts aimed at resolving tensions and permanently ending hostilities, particularly concerning the strategic Strait of Hormuz. Experts suggest that a recommitment by both Washington and Tehran to the April cease-fire agreement, intended to pave the way for negotiations, now appears increasingly improbable.
"This may well be a new phase in the war," stated Riccardo Alcaro, an Iran expert at the Institute of International Affairs in Rome, highlighting the potential for further conflict rather than de-escalation.
Sascha Bruchmann, a Bahrain-based analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, concurred, noting, "I don’t see anyone willing to back down, so I think escalation is the more likely option." He questioned the current relevance of the April truce, especially after Iran's Foreign Ministry declared the latest U.S. strikes had rendered the agreement "meaningless."
Mr. Alcaro commented that President Trump's decision to launch consecutive strikes went beyond a proportionate response to the downing of a U.S. Apache helicopter near the strait. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's statement that the U.S. would "negotiate with bombs" if necessary further signals a potential hardening of American tactics.
