The unusually quiet Atlantic hurricane season is finally set to heat up, with Tropical Storm Isaias expected to become the season's first hurricane before making landfall on the U.S. Gulf Coast by the weekend.
For months, the Atlantic basin has been eerily calm, largely due to a powerful El Niño event that has disrupted storm formation. This atmospheric pattern has suppressed tropical cyclone activity to near-record lows, resulting in zero hurricanes so far. However, Isaias is currently churning in the Gulf of Mexico with winds at 65 mph, just shy of hurricane strength.
Forecasters predict Isaias will pass over unusually warm waters, providing the necessary fuel to intensify into a hurricane. It could potentially peak as a Category 2 storm with winds up to 110 mph before potentially weakening slightly as it approaches the coast, likely between Mississippi and Florida. Hurricane watches have been issued for coastal areas of Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle, with tropical storm watches extending into Louisiana.
Residents in the affected regions should prepare for significant impacts, including rainfall totals potentially reaching up to 7 inches (and as much as 10 inches in parts of the Panhandle), storm surge as high as 7 feet, and the possibility of tornadoes. This storm is being taken seriously by officials.
Adding to the unusual nature of this season, Isaias could make history as the latest first Atlantic hurricane on record. The current record stands at October 8, 1905. While an update on Wednesday might reveal if it ties this mark, the storm's potential late formation highlights the season's extended quiet period.
This year's season was forecast to be below average, but it has been even more subdued than anticipated due to the exceptionally strong El Niño, sometimes dubbed "Godzilla" for its intensity. This powerful El Niño, measured by record-high Pacific Ocean temperatures, has significantly altered atmospheric conditions globally, including over the Atlantic. Other factors, like increased Saharan dust, have also contributed to drier air in key hurricane development zones.
To put the season's inactivity into perspective, the Atlantic basin typically sees an average of 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes annually between 1991 and 2020. This year, we've had eight tropical storms and one soon-to-be hurricane. Another measure, accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), which accounts for storm duration and intensity, is currently at a mere 10.8 units, far below the typical average of nearly 102 for this time of year.
While it's not impossible for another storm to emerge in the coming weeks, the intensifying El Niño and the peak of the hurricane season now being past mean the odds of a significant surge in activity are slim.
