Angela Merkel's CDU takes major hit in regional elections — initial projections

The Christian Democrats lost support in two crucial state elections in Germany, initial projections show. The Greens have won the state of Baden-Württemberg again.

Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats (CDU) took a hit Sunday evening, with early results showing that recent scandals and the mishandling of the COVID-19 vaccine rollout potentially damaged the party in two vital state elections.

Polling stations closed at 6 p.m. on Sunday in the German states of Baden-Württemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate, with the CDU taking 23% in the former, and 26% in the latter, according to early exit poll projections.

The CDU was down in both states, dropping four percentage points in Baden-Württemberg and 5.8 points in Rhineland-Palatinate.

The result means that Winfried Kretschmann, the Green state premier in wealthy Baden-Württemberg, looks set to keep his post, leading a coalition with the CDU.

In Rhineland-Palatinate, the Social Democrats, led by Malu Dreyer, scored a projected 33%, potentially opening the path to another coalition with the Greens and the business-friendly Free Democrats (FDP).

The turnout for both elections was heavily marked by a record number of mail-in ballots, which could significantly delay the final results. As many as 60% of voters in Rhineland-Palatinate were expected to vote by mail, and though there were no current figures for Baden-Württemberg, observers have noted a steady increase of mail-in voters in the past few years in the state, with some 30% voting by mail there in the 2017 national election.
Why are the elections significant?

Both of Sunday's elections seemed more significant on a national level than a regional level, representing as they did the first stage of the "super election year" of 2021, when six states and the nation vote in new parliaments.

All the parties are hoping to pick up momentum in the states ahead of the Bundestag election on September 26, a date that has gained huge political significance as it will mark the end of Angela Merkel's 16-year chancellorship – or at least the beginning of coalition talks that will determine her successor.

But more immediately, the most interesting question was how Merkel's governing party, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), had weathered two recent issues: a corruption scandal that had caused three conservative parliamentarians to step down, and the mishandling of vaccine distribution, which has seen Germany only vaccinate 7.5% of its population.

A recent poll by infratest dimap in both Baden-Württemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate found that only around third of people are still happy with how the coronavirus pandemic has been handled – though in both states more people blame the federal government than their respective state governments.

Some political observers also thought Sunday could mark the moment when the alliance of the CDU and the Christian Social Union (CSU) would finally choose its chancellor candidate: A poor result for the CDU, and newly-minted party leader Armin Laschet could see his stock fall in favor of CSU leader and Bavarian State Premier Markus Söder.