Doubts are emerging around a preliminary U.S.-Iran interim agreement aimed at ending the Middle East conflict, as shipping industry representatives suggest it could take weeks for confidence to be restored following any reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Significant fundamental questions regarding the deal's implementation remain unresolved.
U.S. President Donald Trump announced on Monday that a preliminary agreement to cease hostilities had been finalized by the United States and Iran. However, specific details have not yet been publicly disclosed, and both nations have indicated that a permanent truce is still pending negotiation.
The interim agreement is set to extend a fragile ceasefire, initially declared in April, for an additional 60 days and would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial maritime passage that Iran had effectively controlled since a February conflict involving the U.S. and Israel. Discussions concerning complex issues, such as Iran's nuclear program, are anticipated during the subsequent phase of talks within this 60-day timeframe. Notably, critical aspects cited by President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as justifications for the war—namely, Iran's cessation of support for regional armed proxies and the curtailment of its missile program—are reportedly not slated for inclusion in these upcoming negotiations.
Oil prices experienced a decline on Monday, reaching their lowest point since March 10, shortly after the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted approximately one-fifth of global oil trade. However, prices stabilized on Tuesday, reflecting a more cautious market sentiment, with Brent crude futures trading down 0.3% at $82.96 a barrel in Asian trading hours. The agreement represents the most substantial step to date in resolving the conflict, which has claimed at least 7,000 lives, predominantly in Iran and Lebanon, and significantly impacted global energy markets.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian described the interim accord as an "important step" towards halting the fighting via social media on Monday, while also acknowledging that a final agreement for a lasting truce "has yet to take shape." U.S. Vice President JD Vance characterized the signed memorandum as a "very general document," with further details expected within the next two days, according to U.S. officials. Vance also indicated that the agreement includes a "very significant sanctions relief package" for Iran and suggested that President Trump might release the full agreement before Friday.
While the recent accord could alleviate Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz, this measure merely restores the pre-war status quo. Shipping executives have expressed that traffic will only resume once assurances of safe passage are confirmed. The chief executive of Japan's Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, a major shipping company, informed the Financial Times that shipowners would delay transit through the Strait of Hormuz until they were confident the U.S.-Iran deal was "material," estimating that it could take at least a couple of weeks, if not a month, for such confidence to be established. This perspective reportedly remained unchanged following President Trump's announcement of the deal.
The ongoing conflict between Israel, a U.S. ally, and the Iran-allied Hezbollah militia in Lebanon, which has displaced 1.2 million people, remains a significant point of contention. Iran has stated that the deal necessitates a complete cessation of hostilities in this arena, whereas Prime Minister Netanyahu has affirmed that Israel will maintain its forces in southern Lebanon and reserve the right to retaliate against Hezbollah attacks. A U.S. official clarified that an Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon is not a prerequisite for the deal. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi has demanded an immediate halt to Israeli incursions.
