A survey purporting to show Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass with a significant double-digit lead over Councilmember Nithya Raman has been acknowledged as fraudulent by the company that issued it, Median Strategies.
The purported poll, released by Median Strategies, claimed Bass held a nearly 12 percentage point advantage over Raman in the upcoming mayoral runoff election. The survey, purportedly based on responses from 560 Los Angeles voters between July 30 and August 5, also suggested that a majority of voters who had supported Spencer Pratt in the primary were planning to vote for Bass. It indicated a margin of error of 4.1%.
However, following inquiries from The Times, Median Strategies admitted in an email that the "poll" was not a genuine survey. The company stated its purpose was a "short term social experiment to examine how purported polling information could enter and spread through the political information ecosystem without independent verification." Median Strategies declined to provide further comment or interviews.
The fabricated poll's analysis further suggested that Bass was viewed as the more familiar and moderate option by Pratt's former voters, with approximately 85% indicating support for her in the general election, compared to about 7% for Raman. This angle was highlighted in a California Post headline, which stated that "Spencer Pratt’s voters could be deciding factor in LA mayor showdown according to latest poll."
Mayor Bass had initially welcomed the results of the now-discredited poll, posting on X (formerly Twitter) about "gaining momentum" and citing Median Strategies as the source. Her campaign has since deleted the post. A spokesperson for the Bass campaign stated, "Any bad faith attempts to influence elections should be investigated and prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law." Controller Kenneth Mejia, who has endorsed Raman, also commented on the poll last week, referencing his own past election where polls initially showed him losing before he secured a significant victory.
Median Strategies, which has a limited social media presence with approximately 20 followers, began posting on August 9. In its initial posts, the firm described itself as an experiment to "rebuild" trustworthy polling by avoiding partisan clients and campaign funding. Prior to releasing the Los Angeles mayoral poll, Median Strategies published a survey on the Wisconsin gubernatorial race, incorrectly predicting a significant lead for a Democratic socialist candidate who ultimately lost the election. The firm acknowledged this error on August 12, just before releasing its fabricated poll concerning the Los Angeles mayoral contest.
