Southern California coastal communities are anticipating further flooding on Thursday and Friday due to persistently high water levels driven by El Niño conditions.
Unusually high tides that have inundated low-lying areas, including Newport Beach and Long Beach, are expected to persist longer than initially forecast. The National Weather Service has extended flood advisories for all Southern California coastal counties until 2 p.m. Friday, according to meteorologist Devin Black. These advisories were originally set to expire Thursday afternoon but have been prolonged due to the persistent conditions.
Orange and San Diego counties, which were under a more severe flood warning, will be downgraded to a coastal advisory. The weather service has documented instances of seawater encroaching on low-lying areas, with some structures experiencing shallow flooding around their bases. The Balboa area of Newport Beach has seen significant flooding, as has Sunset Beach, where sections of Pacific Coast Highway have been closed intermittently.
Long Beach has been particularly affected in recent weeks, with tides nearing 8 feet on Thursday morning before a gradual decrease is anticipated over the weekend. Some of this week's tides have established new records, described by Black as being "definitely on the extreme end." The magnitude and angle of swells also play a critical role, increasing risk in areas like San Diego and Orange counties due to their exposure to southwesterly swells.
This period of elevated tides may signal the start of a challenging winter season for coastal areas. Higher tides are predicted around upcoming holidays, and the confluence of strong storms with these high tides could lead to more severe flooding events. This scenario echoes the historic storm of January 1983, which coincided with a powerful El Niño and high tides, causing extensive damage along the California coast.
Experts had warned months in advance about the potential for record-breaking sea levels associated with the strengthening El Niño. The current rise in sea levels is attributed to a combination of human-caused climate change, an El Niño-driven Kelvin wave bringing warmer equatorial Pacific waters, and an ongoing marine heatwave. Scientists estimate this marine heatwave alone has contributed to sea levels rising between 1.25 and 1.8 feet higher than tidal forces alone would dictate.
