Israel-Gaza war: What a ceasefire and hostages deal could include

Western and Arab officials are meeting in Saudi Arabia to discuss progress towards a ceasefire and hostage deal nearly seven months into the war between Israel and Hamas that has devastated the Gaza Strip.

The conflict was triggered when Hamas militants burst over the Gaza border to attack Israel on Oct. 7, killing around 1,200 people and taking 253 hostages, according to Israeli tallies.

Israel’s air and ground campaign in Gaza since then has killed more than 34,000 Palestinians, according to health authorities in the Hamas-run enclave.

The United States, Egypt and Qatar have been mediating truce negotiations since January, with other countries also involved.

The last deal led to a week-long pause in fighting in November during which Hamas released more than 100 hostages and Israel freed about three times as many Palestinian prisoners.

These are some facts about the ceasefire talks:

How far off is a deal?

French Foreign Minister Stephane Sejourne said on Monday talks were progressing ahead of planned talks with Arab and Western ministers in Riyadh.

A Hamas delegation is meanwhile in Cairo to discuss the latest ceasefire proposal and Israel’s response to it, as mediators step up efforts for a deal.

But in their public statements, both sides still remain apart on the biggest issues and foreign pressure on both sides to compromise has for months met with little success.

What’s the urgency?

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says Israel’s military campaign will turn to Rafah, the last city in Gaza not entered by Israeli troops, where the population has been swelled by a million displaced people who fled their homes elsewhere.

Aid agencies, as well as Western allies of Israel, fear an attack there would magnify the humanitarian crisis in Gaza caused by the war, intensifying international pressure for a truce.

Continued fighting makes any effort to improve the dire humanitarian situation in Gaza far more difficult, with the World Food Program saying last week that northern parts of the enclave were still heading towards famine.

Ceasefire

The biggest difference between the sides is over conditions for a ceasefire.

Israel has said it is ready to accept a temporary halt to fighting during a hostage-and-prisoner swap.

But Netanyahu is determined not to end the military campaign until it achieves “total victory” over Hamas with an assault on Rafah.

He then envisages open-ended Israeli security control over Gaza, which would allow forces to return at any point.

Hamas says it will only accept a deal based on a permanent ceasefire that ends the war and includes an Israeli troop withdrawal from Gaza, rather than another temporary truce.

Hostages and prisoners

Netanyahu and his senior ministers say that any agreement would have to lead to the return of all the 133 hostages who Israel says remain in Gaza, or of their bodies if they have already died. In return for freeing hostages, Hamas wants a wide-scale release of Palestinians held by Israel.

Negotiations may touch on the ratio of prisoners to be released per hostage, the phasing of the releases, and whether higher-profile Palestinians or those convicted of serious violence would be included.

Sticking points in the negotiations over recent weeks have included how many hostages Hamas could assemble within particular time frames, and how many from particular categories, such as women and civilians.

Other issues

Hamas wants other commitments as part of the deal, although it is not clear how far it would make a deal contingent on achieving those goals.

It wants all displaced people to be able to return to their homes across Gaza. It wants far more aid to be allowed in. And it wants a reconstruction program, with most houses and infrastructure having been smashed or damaged by Israeli bombardment.

Netanyahu’s post-war plan, contained in a cabinet discussion paper, conditions rehabilitation of Gaza on the coastal enclave’s total demilitarization - meaning Hamas would have to lay down all its arms, something it is unlikely to accept.

with Reuters