Clearing mines from the Strait of Hormuz could take several weeks, potentially delaying the resumption of normal shipping traffic despite a recent agreement to reopen the crucial waterway, according to maritime security and shipping industry sources.
Estimates from five Western maritime security sources suggest that operations involving conventional minesweepers and advanced underwater drones may last between 40 and 50 days before insurance providers, shipping companies, and oil firms deem passage safe enough. This delay could impact tens of millions of barrels of oil daily, in addition to supplies already disrupted by military actions in the region.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration recently indicated that global oil stockpiles are nearing their lowest levels since 2003, underscoring the critical importance of Gulf export volumes. While both Iran and the U.S. have reportedly facilitated some ship passages in recent weeks, officials caution against immediate transit due to the persistent threat of mines.
Jakob Larsen, Chief Safety & Security Officer at BIMCO, emphasized the ongoing risks. "The threat of mines in the area remains a concern immediately as well as further down the line, and mine-free routes need to be established," he stated, urging caution for vessels considering transit at this juncture.
The precise number of mines laid by Iran in the strait, which handles a significant portion of global oil and liquefied natural gas, remains unclear. U.S. officials have indicated that Iran has mined substantial areas, and reports from Germany's navy, citing U.S. and British intelligence, have identified potential mine locations. The substantial value of supertankers and their cargo, estimated at $300 million, necessitates assurances of safety from war risk underwriters and shipping companies before voyages resume.
Shipping traffic through the strait has remained low, averaging 12 to 15 vessels daily in recent weeks, a fraction of the pre-war volume. While the recent agreement is viewed as a significant step toward restoring safety, its effective implementation will require time to ensure all necessary security guarantees are in place for seafarers and ships.
