A new study from Northern Arizona University (NAU) suggests that the Climate TRACE database, a major global greenhouse gas emissions tracker co-founded by Al Gore, significantly underestimates carbon dioxide emissions from vehicles in cities. Researchers found that the database may be undercounting these emissions by an average of 70%.
The findings, published in Environmental Research Letters by NAU professor Kevin Gurney, raise concerns about the reliability of emissions data used for climate policy. Gurney's research team compared Climate TRACE's estimates for cars and trucks in 260 U.S. cities with their own independent database, Vulcan. The Vulcan system is built using official traffic and energy consumption data, providing a solid benchmark.
The comparison revealed a stark difference: Climate TRACE's CO2 emissions figures were, on average, 70% lower than those in the Vulcan database. In some cities, like Indianapolis and Nashville, the underestimation was over 90%. Researchers believe these discrepancies could extend beyond the U.S. and impact global climate data.
While acknowledging the potential of artificial intelligence in emissions tracking, the study emphasizes the need for rigorous scientific standards, transparency, and expert review. Accurate emissions data is crucial for developing effective climate policies and tracking progress toward reduction goals. Gurney stressed the importance of unbiased, scientifically sound data to avoid misleading decision-makers and maintain public trust.
Kevin Gurney has dedicated over two decades to developing standardized methods for measuring greenhouse gas emissions. His previous projects, Vulcan and Hestia, quantify emissions nationwide and have shown strong agreement with direct atmospheric monitoring. His extensive work has contributed to numerous scientific papers and policy-related reports, including those for the UN and the IPCC.
