Twenty years after enacting the landmark Global Warming Solutions Act (AB 32), California is not on track to meet its ambitious future climate targets, according to new data. Despite initial success in reducing emissions, the state faces significant challenges in achieving its 2030 and 2045 goals.
The passage of AB 32 in 2006 established a statewide framework for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, including the creation of a cap-and-invest program. California successfully met its initial target of returning emissions to 1990 levels by 2020, six years ahead of schedule. However, current data indicates the state has achieved only about half of the required reduction for its 2030 goal, which aims for emissions to be 40% below 1990 levels.
According to the state's latest greenhouse gas emissions inventory, annual emissions in 2024 were approximately 346 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent, a roughly 4% decrease from 1990 levels. To meet the 2030 target, California must reduce emissions by an additional 86 million metric tons. Projections suggest that at the current pace, this target will not be met until 2034. The goal for 2045, an 85% reduction below 1990 levels, requires an even steeper annual reduction rate starting in 2030.
State officials acknowledge that federal actions, including the rollback of electric vehicle incentives and challenges to emissions standards, threaten to undermine progress, particularly in the transportation sector, which remains California's largest source of pollution. Despite these setbacks, recent emissions reductions have shown improvement, with a 3.9% cut in 2024, an increase from 3% in 2023. This progress is attributed to cleaner transportation, electricity generation from renewable sources, and reduced emissions from residential buildings.
Achieving the next set of targets will necessitate substantial advancements in the transportation sector, as well as in industrial and commercial areas. Experts and former officials highlight affordability and the need for significant infrastructure investments as major hurdles. The California Public Utilities Commission estimates that $62 billion in transmission upgrades alone will be required over the next decade. Despite these challenges, Governor Gavin Newsom emphasized that California's economy has grown substantially since AB 32 was enacted, demonstrating that climate action and economic prosperity are not mutually exclusive.
California remains a leader in state-level climate efforts, though the United States as a whole is falling behind. A recent United Nations report indicated that U.S. emissions increased last year, partly due to federal policies, while other major economies reduced their carbon pollution. The world is currently on a trajectory for 4.7 degrees of warming by 2100, significantly exceeding the 2.7-degree target established by the Paris climate agreement.
