The Houthi militia's expansion along Yemen's west coast and strategic islands near the Bab al-Mandab strait poses escalating security and economic risks not only to international shipping but also to Egypt and the wider Horn of Africa region.
A report published by The Conversation highlights that the Houthi control over key coastal locations and islands, including Mokha port, Perim Island, and the Z qur and Hanish archipelagos, provides them with an advanced platform to threaten maritime navigation. This expansion in September 2026 challenges beyond Yemen's borders, impacting the maritime security and economic systems of regional nations. The Bab al-Mandab strait, connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean, is a critical chokepoint for global trade between Asian and European markets.
The report cautions that the presence of an Iran-backed armed group near Bab al-Mandab, coupled with Tehran's influence over the Strait of Hormuz, creates a potential for simultaneous disruption at two vital maritime chokepoints. This scenario could significantly limit shipping options and escalate insurance and transportation costs for goods and energy.
Egypt, heavily reliant on the Suez Canal, faces direct economic repercussions. Previous Houthi attacks have reportedly caused substantial losses to Suez Canal revenues, with estimates suggesting Cairo lost approximately $7 billion in 2024 due to reduced maritime traffic. While official Egyptian data indicated a gradual improvement in canal traffic in early 2026, the report argues that any gains remain vulnerable to setbacks if the Houthis consolidate their military presence. The risk extends beyond direct attacks; increased security concerns could lead shipping companies and insurers to deem the region unstable, rerouting vessels away from the Red Sea and reimposing pressure on Suez Canal revenues and global trade costs.
Djibouti and Ethiopia are also vulnerable due to their geographical positions. Djibouti serves as a primary trade hub for Ethiopia, a landlocked country heavily dependent on its ports and transport networks. Prolonged instability in Bab al-Mandab could directly impact Ethiopian supply chains through increased shipping and insurance costs. Eritrea, with its strategic coastline, finds itself at the center of escalating competition for influence in the Red Sea, as regional powers seek to counter Iranian and Houthi influence on the African side of the maritime corridor.
The Houthi expansion occurs amidst existing severe security crises in Somalia and Sudan. The report warns that further proliferation of armed networks in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden could intersect with the activities of militant groups, organized crime, and piracy, exacerbating the challenges faced by African nations. The ongoing conflict in Sudan further destabilizes the security environment along the Red Sea's western coast. The report highlights the danger of these crises converging, making the Houthi threat inseparable from broader conflicts, smuggling networks, and armed groups in the region.
This expansion is viewed not as an isolated military crisis but as part of a wider regional competition for control and influence in the Red Sea, involving territorial disputes, port access, and strategic corridors. The Houthi advance on the Yemeni coast adds a new dynamic, potentially forcing African nations to reassess their security strategies amid fears of Bab al-Mandab becoming an advanced Iranian sphere of influence. The report underscores the need for enhanced maritime security cooperation, intelligence sharing, and diversified trade routes among African Red Sea nations. While regional frameworks exist, the report stresses the challenge lies in their effective operationalization, requiring adequate resources, intelligence, and legal structures.
Ultimately, the Houthi expansion at Bab al-Mandab is reshaping the security equation in the Red Sea. The strait is becoming a nexus for conflicts in Yemen, Iranian influence, maritime security, and regional competition in Africa. The critical question remains whether regional nations can contain this expansion before the Red Sea evolves into a broader theater of influence and conflict.
