U.S. forces are scheduled to conclude their withdrawal from Iraq by Wednesday, marking an end to over two decades of military presence. This departure is viewed as a strategic victory for Iran and its regional allies, who are poised to expand their influence in a country that endured significant American casualties and prolonged conflict.
The withdrawal, initially agreed upon in 2024 and executed across administrations, is raising concerns among Iraqi security experts. They suggest that the departure could grant Tehran and its affiliated militias unchecked operational space, potentially allowing other adversaries, including remnants of the Islamic State, to re-emerge. Jasim al-Bahadli, an Iraqi security analyst specializing in Iran-aligned Shi'ite groups, stated that Iran stands to benefit strategically from the coalition's exit, as it removes a military presence that had acted as a counterbalance to Tehran's influence.
Militia commanders aligned with Iran hailed the withdrawal as a historic triumph. Abu Mojtaba al-Yasiri, a commander in the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, described the departure as "a historic victory for the Iraqi Islamic resistance groups and honorable Iraqis, and a crushing defeat for the American project." He added, "Iraq has proven that its sovereignty cannot be secured by foreign forces, but by the resistance and the will of its people."
Despite the general popularity of the U.S. withdrawal among Iraqis, some express apprehension regarding the escalating strength of Iran-backed factions and the potential premature nature of the troop exit. Abdulrahman al-Zobaie, a Sunni tribal leader from Fallujah, voiced concerns that "Iraq is still not fully ready to take over the security file at this time." He emphasized that while all Iraqis desire full sovereignty, the manner of the U.S. departure could create a dangerous vacuum that they fear.
The U.S. military intervention in Iraq began in 2003 with the stated aim of removing Saddam Hussein and subsequently evolved into a counterinsurgency effort, followed by a return in 2014 to combat the Islamic State. In recent years, Iraq has navigated a complex geopolitical landscape, maintaining ties with both the United States and Iran, which has intermittently used Iraqi territory as a proxy battleground. The U.S. withdrawal occurs amidst ongoing regional tensions, including past confrontations between U.S. forces and Iran-backed groups in Iraq.
Concerns also persist that the U.S. pullout could embolden remaining Islamic State fighters. Iraqi security officials, particularly from the Kurdish region, note increased activity from Islamic State sleeper cells since the withdrawal was announced. Kurdish commander Sirwan Barzani suggested that the departure could boost the morale of these fighters. Iraqi security forces recently uncovered a suspected Islamic State cell reportedly planning suicide attacks to coincide with the troop exit, highlighting the persistent threat posed by the militant group and its capacity to exploit security gaps.
